How to find value in sports betting


While there are alternative ways how to make money betting on sports, finding a value in your bets or having an objective edge is the only way proven to be profitable in the long run. There are bonus hunters, arbers, people betting on dropping odds, ones that try to guess a fixed match and similar, but all of them get recognized by bookmakers sooner than later for such suspicious behavior and either limited or banned from further betting. As traders and risk management get more and more strict in treating these customers, there are still sharps or wiseguys that manage to profit from sports betting, by simply betting on carefully chosen matches. From our experience in working for the industry the only type of punter that wins and doesn't attract attention of "betting police" is the one that simply bets on major leagues and manages to pick winners more often than losers. Get on the train and find value in sports betting.


Value in Pre-match betting


These days it is a bit harder to find value in pre-match betting than it was before all bookmakers become connected with internet. Before, there were differences from bookmaker to bookmaker and smart guys knew that if they play on odds that dropped on Asian bookmakers (have much more authority and cash flow than their local bookmakers) in the long run they will make money. Now, most odds are automated and set to follow either market average or a selected bookmaker within several seconds from odds' change. Also, if you even manage to place a few bets on dropping odds, you will be recognized by bookmakers as a bad customer. And bad customers get limited or payment denied or account banned. Being an expert in some minor league and finding value there is also being recognized by bookmakers. For such behavior they will not limit your account in general, but they will limit your betting ability in that league and allow you to bet on other leagues/sports.


Now, if you want to bet on value, you have to understand how odds are initially made. Those bookmakers that compile odds that will be followed by the whole world, usually have a network of experts in different sports and different leagues. These experts usually have their own algorithms to compile odds (or in house traders do). To compile odds from algorithm, he needs statistical analysis, injuries and suspensions, and other key factors. Then they have to evaluate those key factors and make odds using their algorithm model. Once odds are posted online, they fluctuate around those “early odds” depending how money comes in. Some odds drop significantly due to high volume of bets or a change in information about match circumstances, but they always give their best to have the most accurate and updated odds. The ones that are based on their initial calculations.


There is the key. Calculating and evaluating key factors in their initial odds that they trust so much. Wrong assessment of value of key factors that influence the possibility of outcome can mean difference in odds between 2 and 3 (1/1 or 2/1). Statistically, if Arsenal and Chelsea played 5:0 and then 0:5, calculations will give you even chances to win for both sides in 3rd match. But if this match ends up 5:0 for Arsenal again then bookmaker had wrong odds. Your job here is to recognize that this match will end up 5:0 and not 2:2 as they might have predicted.


How to do that exactly? Well, there isn't a specific formula for this as every match is different. If it was so easy everybody would be making money out of sports betting. The best recipe is to include as many factors as possible while calculating your expected odds/value. This will ensure maximum objectivity. Be sure to make statistical analysis, combine it with missing players, players motivation. Read a couple of latest news to feel how the team is breathing. Make sure you stay updated with the latest information about teams playing and use your instinct, but in a controlled amount.


We recommend to stay away from any type of software selling value information. Those are built to make their creator money, not you as much. They might be helpful in a certain amount to figure out why and how to recognize value, but their software is far inferior to the one used by bookmakers. A bunch of Harvard and Cambridge PhD's are making better sports models calculations than any sports betting enthusiast that decided to earn some extra cash. Also, as money speaks in sports betting, their calculations mean nothing when odds are influenced by big pressure of liability made by the best sports betting professionals.


Value in Live betting


Live betting requires different strategy. Finding value in live betting is something you train, not something you read somewhere, then apply magic formula to your bets. In general, there are some strategies that are being used by experienced punters, but models that are used for Live sports are adapting much faster than models used for pre-match. From our own experience, we can tell you that every month there is an analysis in every major bookmaker of markets that produce loss in live. If there is a mistake in model or it just needs to be adjusted due to changes of circumstances, it will be done within a couple of weeks. At the same time, clients that win on a specific way in Live, will be monitored, limited or expelled by bookmaker if he finds them harmful to their business. This all means that if you can use a specific strategy for a very limited amount of time and it is questionable how many bookmakers won't deny you a payment after you broke their system of odds.


Our answer is: don't use one specific strategy all the time, learn how you need to think about probabilities and value in Live betting. Live betting offers much more value bet opportunities as there are several key factors to consider:


  1. Time – odds change over time (as match comes closer to end) and not always reflect 100% realistic chance for some event to occur or not to occur

  2. Specific conditions changes – like rain/snow, injuries, red cards, formation changes, motivation changes

  3. Starting odds – this is the most common and most potentially profitable factor of all. If you learn how to recognize that starting odds (or current odds) don't reflect actual action on field on time, you might get into that profit train on a lot of matches and find opportunities several times during the match.


In order to master the time element, you need a lot of experience in how live odds move and a good assessment of what is an opportunity. Is it under of goals in 80th minute when home team has red card and leads 1:0 or odds are on point at this moment. You will have to see in your head why some odds in a specific moment aren't right.


Considering conditions changes, you must know who are the teams facing each other and what is their motivation despite the red card being awarded. Red card doesn't automatically mean that the opposite will score. It just means that in a minutes after it has been awarded, circumstances and odds are changed and you have to figure out is the change in odds reflecting the real action on field or not. If it doesn't, you bet on what you think it's right.


When chasing wrong starting odds, don't just consider number of chances some team had, have in mind also team's game plan. Will they hit on counter attack, how good does their defense looks like at the moment. In tennis, consider some player's body language, does he look ready to fall? Mental factor is often a decisive one in making a winner or a loser, especially in individual sports like tennis. If you figure out that Barcelona has a chance to score 5 or more goals to PSG in Champions League after watching first 15 or 20 minute of the match, then you are in real money. If you figure out before match of Real and Juve in the finals of Champions League that Juve despite good defense, strategy and form, doesn't have the mental ability to win it, then you are making money.


To learn how to recognize these opportunities, you need a trained eye, you need to watch matches you are betting on. Knowledge comes from experience and we recommend a method of try and fail with low stakes before you get confident enough to try with big stakes. This is the skill you have to develop on your own and there is not even 1 course that will teach you exactly what you need to bet on in a specific minute of a specific match. This is how you become professional bettor and there isn't a shortcut on internet despite all the luring offers from scammers or delusional fog sellers.


Our mission


In the long run, this is the way you can make money betting online and there isn't another strategy that will give results constantly. This is one of the reasons why we started this website in the first place. We want to make people more aware of how many false information marketing there is around this industry. Back in the days we used to run a blog and Facebook groups that were making people aware of the scams in betting. But, these guys were multiplying like virus and soon enough everybody was searching for fixed matches or magical software that is making guaranteed profit on sports betting. The only way you will know the match is really fixed is if you fixed it yourself, despite there are some “clues”. The only software you need to win at sports betting is your own brain. Your own brain is the best software available in the world.


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