In this article from Best Betting Strategy Guide series we will discuss the best strategies to apply in tennis right now. Not top 5 strategies, not strategies that used to work, but the best strategy working now. To be able to benefit from this strategy and it is a real strategy, you have to find a suitable bookmaker first. You must bet only on ATP and WTA events as applying it to ITF tennis and challengers will cause your account to be limited or closed by bookmakers very soon. Also, we strongly recommend mixing up some other bets called mug bets or ordinary bets on football or any other sport. This will help your account stay “healthy” for longer time and make it possible to make that profit we aim to.
Best pre-match betting strategy for tennis
Another reason why you need to concentrate on ATP and WTA tennis events is that we are planning to bet on minor markets. To be exact on over/under of games market. This market isn't always available on ITF matches, there can be a case of match fixing on ITF and also bookmakers pay special attention to users that bet on ITF.
This market is of particular interest to us because during the years of betting and working in the industry, we have noticed a weak point in tennis model we are happy to exploit. We found that highest value is hidden in bookmakers underestimating the factor of serving strength. All they get from analyzing is data like a number of won matches, number of won games. They sometimes get a result of over 30 games, sometimes there is 20 games in the match so they will put o/u of 25.5 games for the next match. The factor of how someone serves and receives service isn't emphasized enough in their equation.
This is the factor on which we must put our attention. The key to be successful in betting on over/under of games in match is to know as much as possible about serving strength of as many as possible tennis players. Money can be made in WTA as well as in ATP, but in WTA it is a bit more unpredictable due to mental strength of players being more consistent in male tennis. Also, it is VERY IMPORTANT to catch early odds on matches as other players will try to make same bets as soon as odds open. They will shift odds to another o/u line. Sometimes 1 game point can mean the difference between win or loss, but if you aren't completely comfortable with your choice, you can wait an hour or so to check on which side odds move. If odds move the way you predicted – towards over of games, then make a bet while you still can.
Let me give you few examples. It is 1st round of some major tennis tournament and Djokovic is playing against some teenage hope with great potential. This guy is 195 cm tall and serves 200 KM/h. Due to the fact that Djokovic is who he is and this teenager is a no name with ranking 100 in ATP chart, odds on Djokovic will be very low. And Djokovic will probably win. But (when they first open odds) lines in o/u of games in match will also be very low due to model calculations. Here we want to place our bet on over of games as it is very likely a young hope will do his best to use his strongest weapon against a big tennis star.
On WTA, there is a match between 2 top 10 players. One is a great server and returner like Sharapova, the other one is a solid returner, but very bad server. Sharapova is favorite here with 1.6 odds. But we have in offer o/u 22.5 games with odds 1.9. In this situation I would chose under of games. If in any case other player has a good day, the chances are that she even might even win, but if she is consistent to her bad serving the chances are I will catch much better odds.
Best live betting strategy for tennis
In live, we are going to take thing the similar, but potentially much more profitable way. In live we want to bet on servers winning their serve in ATP and servers to lose their serve in WTA. Of course, you can apply the vice versa if you see the action unfolding the other way. If you spot a weak server going onto strong returner in ATP, you can bet the other player to win. To make money this way is easy, but you have to spot 2 things before you make a move:
You have to know who is a good server and who is a bad one, same for returning of service
We always have to wait for several points to be played in the match or set because when 1 player starts playing in a certain way it is highly likely that he is going to continue the momentum the same way at least until the end of that set
Great thing is that you can repeat this bet up to 10-15 times in one match, but be smart and stop when power ratio starts to move. Tennis is an individual sport and mental strength of players goes up and down during the match. Sometimes they get nervous, sometimes they get too relaxed after gaining a big lead, sometimes they crush their opponents in 1 hour. It is important to stop betting on next game winner when opponent starts winning points or when opponent starts to lose points all of a sudden. End of each set is usually when power ratio between 2 players starts to change, so avoid placing bets on first couple of points in each set.
Let me give you only one example. I encountered several matches in WTA when both servers had a very bad day. I managed to enter in 4th game of the match – on second break in the match and kept backing for server to lose her serving point. At that point, odds were 2.7 on 1 player and 3.4 on other one to lose his serving point. As match unfolded both players were losing their serves from game to game. There was 14 breaks in the match and odds shifted so much that my last bets were on 1.6 and 1.8 odds. I managed to squeeze in 6300 EUR from 2 hours of work.
This happens rarely, but if you apply this strategy correctly with knowledge and some experience, it gives you up to 30 % profit in the long run. This is why you have to combine other bets as well and even lose some money on football in order to keep bookmakers kind of happy. The truth is that they all dislike winners and if you bet only this way, they will close or limit your account very fast. Good thing is that there is plenty of other good bookmakers to choose from.
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