We hope you read the article “Best Betting Strategy Guide – Very Important Intro” as it will help you understand how to apply correctly our best strategy for football. In this article we will present you the crucial data we use for this strategy, which is a consequence of research made by top sports betting experts. Using this strategy may give you an exciting edge over bookmakers. Due to the nature of this strategy, we advice you to open an account at one of the bookmakers with high coverage of football (soccer) events in pre-match and live and high coverage of available markets.
When goals are scored?
Over the years, we have noticed an anomaly in goals scored over time in different leagues. We conducted a research in different leagues and all have the same result, the same conclusion. On some leagues like English Premier League and Turkish Super Lig this anomaly comes to the fore more than on leagues like Italian Serie A. We believe it is expressed more in leagues where more goals are scored on average than in leagues with less average number of scored goals. This is a statistical conclusion, logical conclusion is that it happens on matches where there is a lot of goals, no matter what league it is in question.
Even at first look, it is more than obvious that most goals per minute are scored in minutes 45 and 90. We believe that this happens out of several reasons. One is fatigue as players-defenders are more tired in the last minutes of half time, the other one is pressure and motivation for team to score goals when they have to chase result. This chart is made on a model of English Premier League and it clearly states when you have to place on over of goals.
To prove you that his is not specific only for Premier League, take a look at this second chart that includes data from the biggest competition in soccer. On World Cup chart including all so far played WCs and where average number of goals per match is 2.86 (which is on the high end) it is very obvious that number of scored goals increases significantly during last 5 minutes of each half. Number of goals scored from 85-90 minute is the highest.
Do bookmakers know this?
Well, some bookmakers are well aware of this anomaly, so that on example Bet365 (one of the best bookmakers in the world) doesn't even offer half time markets from 40 to 45th minute. On any football match! Since recently, they also started to close over/under of goals in some matches for the last couple of minutes in second half. This is an obvious proof that this method works, that it made them some damage – meaning losses and that they don't have a way how to incorporate this anomaly into their live betting mathematical model/automation.
Some other bookmakers however either don't know this information or they think you don't know it. There are dozens of bookmakers that still offer halt time and full time markets for the whole duration of periods in live. So, all you have to do is to find a bookmaker with high coverage and that doesn't close it's half time markets in last 5 minutes of period to benefit from using this strategy in Live betting.
For pre-match betting all we have to do is find bookmakers that offer market such as: goal scored in 10 minutes of 15 minutes periods. But, using this type of market is recommended only for major leagues like Champions League, Europa League and top 5 European leagues. Only in these leagues because betting on minor league is either disabled by bookmaker or will raise some questions when risk management department checks your betting activity. There is a lot of bookmakers that offer these markets, but they have lower maximum stakes than on other markets. Betting on these markets in pre-match does contain some value, but not nearly as much as when betting on Live matches.
How to use it?
There it is. One of the rare strategies that actually works, has an scientific proof and actual proof in betting industry. It is at the same time so simple that is confusing to bookmaker and will not cause your account to be limited or banned for a long time if you apply it with care. This is how we recommend using this strategy:
Choose a suitable bookmaker or several of them
Place only on major leagues on over of goals in minutes 40 or 85
Place mostly on high scoring matches or matches that are expected to be high scoring
Don't be too greedy – spread your bank over as many suitable matches as possible as this method works in the long run and you will not win in every match
Stay disciplined – try to figure out which match could have goal scored in 85th minute or later, do not get carried away by few winning bets then try to bet on every match
Last but MOST IMPORTANT one: Mix up some other bets on major leagues (mug bets) that will send a signal to the bookmaker that you are an ordinary bettor
In the end, we wish you best of luck with this strategy and we are convinced it will produce results in the long run if applied correctly. If it doesn't then you are doing something wrong as statistically you are destined to success. If you liked our article, feel free to share and take a look on other articles we have either from Best Betting Strategy Guide series or other Knowledgebase content.