You are probably reading this article if you already have some experience in betting, won some money here and there and want to know how to make more money from sports betting. You also probably have some experience with some tipsters – guys who recommend matches you should play, but rarely give you a proof that they have also played those matches. This means that they don't stand by their word and are only interested in making money by making other people lose money in the long run. If you have ever payed for "fixed" match then we are sorry for your loss, but in this article we will also explain how they scam people and why to avoid "fixed" matches. Are you ready to become sports betting expert?
How do I become expert in sports betting?
First of all you have to practice your mental strength by following several rules:
Be disciplined – do not chase loses by placing irrational, not thinked through bets
Be responsible – never place all the money you have on 1 bet/match, in fact, never place more than 50% of your bank on one match.
Think twice – when you find a match you want to place your bet on, think twice why these odds are higher than you expect them to be, browse though internet and find an answer
Don't be naive – 99,99999999% of matches that are claimed to be fixed by some scam guys, really aren't fixed. Guys who actually fix matches will NEVER share that information with you, they will rather keep quiet to avoid being caught and win money for themselves.
It is just a game – although there are some guys who can make for living from sports betting, they also realize that it is impossible to win every bet and be in positive balance every month. Never stake more than you can afford to lose and realize it is just your hobby.
Most common 2 types of scammers on internet regarding sports betting:
Now, I'm not trying to convince you that there aren't fixed matches at all, I'm just trying to explain you that they don't have even the possibility to have access to that kind of information and how the most common scam they use works. Fixed matches are very classified information and if you are lucky enough to find genuine second hand information about truly fixed match you will pay for it between 10 and 20 thousand EUR per match. These come from re-sellers of information, guys who paid for this information much more money and want to cover losses. But, unfortunately for you who have this kind of money to pay, on every 1 seller of this info there comes 1000 of sellers of bogus information – thief, that will take your money and probably never even bother to even give you some allegedly fixed match. And there are these guys who send you "fixed" match information for free. Sounds tempting, but it is a huge scam. This has become almost like a small industry. Here is how their most common system of scamming works:
There is 90 people interested in some match that is claimed to be fixed playing this weekend. He will first advert that he has information and gather as many people as possible during the week.When weekend comes and he needs to give this information, he chooses any match with nearly even odds and starts sending bogus information about half time/full time market. This market is perfect for this scam as it has only 9 possible outcomes and high odds. So, scammer divides number of people by number of possible outcomes, in our case 90 people by 9 possible outcomes. First 10 people will get in their inbox (email, facebook, pm) HT/FT 1/2, next 10 people will get HT/FT 2/1, next 10 will get 1/1 etc..
From this 90 people in the start there will be 10 people that will certainly win and they will go wow, this guy is great. In this point these 10 guys will be ready to pay any amount for the next match information. 80 people that lost will go meh, this guy is selling shit and go on to another guy who will apply the same scam onto them until they win.
Real victims of this scam are those 10 people who actually won a bet. Scammer will apply the same strategy for a next week match onto them and in meanwhile gather their money to provide this info. He will also start another campaign or even several ones to gather new 90 guys who are eagerly waiting for a fixed match info in their inbox. After second round of scam, there will still be 1 or 2 winners who will also have to send scammer a picture of their winning ticket, and they will be scammed 1 more time until they lose more money than they had in the first place. The picture they sent to scammer will be used by scammer as a proof that his predictions win money and lure even more naive souls. This completes the cirle that goes round and round until the scammer stumbles upon wrong dudes to scam and gets a proper beating at least.
The sad truth about these ones is that 90% of them think that they are smarter than a trust of 300 best betting companies in the world. All odds are compiled by guys who know more about some league than internet will ever know about and at the same time have a degree in mathematics or statistics related field. And there is more than 300 companies in the world that all have much more information about any match than most of these will ever have. The only reason there is so many of tipsters is because they can't win enough money for themselves by betting.
Imagine that you can win at betting enough money to feed yourself and your family, would you ever become a tipster and bother every day for the whole day with passing around an information on what to bet? Most probably not.
The saddest part is that most of them believe they have the edge over bookmaker just by applying statistical analysis of matches. Statistical analysis is only 1 out of many tools used by bookmaker to compile odds. This is something you cn do by yourself by checking desired matches on pages footballstats.com and using our injuries and suspensions page. You can even take it one step further than so called "pro tipster". Take a look at our article with simple algorithm to compile your own odds for free. Using this algorithm will secure that you stay objective with your matches and play only the ones you find to be possibly more profitable.
So how to become a sports betting expert in the end?
You must find what s called a "value" in every bet you make. The key to become a profitable bettor is simply to have more wins than loses. Let me elaborate.To be profitable, you must on example win 60% of matches on odds 2 (which is 50% of chance to win) or 90% of matches at odds 1.2 etc. This is called an edge over bookmakers. Naturally, bookmakers have an edge over player by applying approximately 8% of margin on every odds they offer. This provides bookmaker 8% of profit over long term if all the money has been placed on perfectly accurate odds. But, it is not always a case that bookmaker has perfect odds on every event as there are 10 or 20 thousand of events in offer every month.
To have an edge over bookmaker, you have to find a value in all of your bets. To have an value means to simply objectively conclude that odds of bookmaker are higher than they should be. As you have already probably been doing it, you have to find good odds to bet on. But use our algorithm to asses more objectively which are odds good to bet on and which ones aren't. Also, as we mentioned in the beginning of this article, think twice why some odds are the way they are. It is very common that bookmakers have the information you can't find anywhere on internet much before bettors acquire that information. This is crucial to make profits, a good and fresh information.
So, the process of choosing matches to bet on goes like this:
You find matches that you think WILL WIN
You check these matches stats, missing player and OTHER key factors (like neutral ground, starting lineups, lack of motivation etc)
You evaluate all these factors into percentages
You run all this collected information through our simple algorithm and you got your own odds
In a case algorithm results with odds by 5 OR MORE % LOWER than odds of bookmaker, you make a bet*
If it doesn't then forget that match or include in low stakes multiple only
*5% difference is not the difference in odds, but difference in probabilities to win. If you already know how to calculate this, great, if you don't take a look on our specified article on odds and probability. It is good to have a look at our predictions or some tipster's just to confirm your opinion, but with all the tools we provide you, you have to realize that you have superior technique than they do and in practice, this will get more obvious to you day by day.
The most important thing of all!
Is the choice of bookmaker. It is very common that you can find a small (1-5%) value on some events, but your local bookmaker or a bookmaker that is a National Monopolist in your country offers odds that are so much lower than ones on other bookmakers. These odds kick out any possible value. Add up some additional taxes that government imposes and you lose that edge instantly before you even make a bet.
Betting expert will always have accounts open on several bookmakers. To make a good betting portfolio of accounts, you need 3 things:
Bookmaker that gives high coverage of events and markets – One that will offer even your son's junior league
Bookmaker that has high betting limits and very high odds – the best odds in the world on high profile matches
Betting exchange – a place with supreme odds and possibility to hedge your bet with ease, that at the same time doesn't limit your betting ability or rejects your bets
Please consider examples bellow just an example of betting portfolio. Bookmakers in first column are the ones with best coverage, in second column are the ones that provide great odds with good betting limits and in the last column there are our recommended betting exchanges.
Having this kind of portfolio is crucial for your betting profits, as over the year you might stake a large amount of money. Having these bookmakers' accounts means that betting will provide you an extra 10-20% of profit which in the long run and with big total amount of staked money gives a huge difference on your bankroll. Many bettors, even tipster ignore this math into their calculations and make a big mistake which in the end costs them thousands of EUR of wasted profit.
After this article, we think you are ready to start collecting experience and more knowledge on how to become an expert in betting. Be sure to follow our advice and we guarantee you will eventually become much better in betting. Never forget it is just a hobby and enjoy your betting experience.